In the last two days the shaking and ground deformation on the Reykjanes Peninsula has continued , but with some potentially good changes for the Iceland Volcano situation. In the latest updates, and the mapping of the most recent earthquakes tends to show a movement of the Magma to the east and slight northeast. More and more, this instance is looking a lot like 2021. As the Magma sill continues to spread to the east and north, it is finding areas of less resistance to push through on its way to the surface. Our big concern tn our volcano update two days ago was that the lava would erupt directly beside the power plant, placing the Blue Lagoon and Grendavik in extreme danger. Given the newer data, the risk to them may have changed.
What does this mean for the tourist, the power plant, the Blue Lagoon and the residents so Grendavik? Let's get into it.
According to earthquake monitors, in the last 48 hours, the tremors have moved progressively eastward, now averaging ~ 1km east of the power plant. While still uphill from it and the town of Grendavik, the movement suggest that the magma may still move to areas blocked to critical infrastructure, tourist destinations and homes. Obviously, much can still change, but as the sill continues moving eastward, we can only hope that it moves another 2km and erupts in the valleys beneath Fagradalsfjall again. Obviously, this would be the best possible place foe another Iceland Volcano / volcanic eruption to occur, leaving people to watch as pleased onlookers instead of placed in a position of peril.
That said, if ithe lava stayes west of the ridgeline, this would present the worst possible scenario for Grendavik. As presented by the Channel, Just Icelandic, there is a likelihood now that the villege will be placed in a very bad position if the eruption occurs directly under the current swarm.
Ultimately, the best possible scenario is one we will still hope for. As with the last three eruptions over the last three years, tourist eruptions have been incredibly beneficial tot he Iceland economy and to the tourists who have been able to be witness to one of nature's most magical events. While trying to not be overly optimistic, there is still a reason to believe this could swing east like 2021, leaving us with an amazing and breathtaking eruption like that which happened in Geldingadalir ,Nátthaga and upper and lower Meradalir.
Keep in mind, the periods of increased volcanic activity on the penensula tend to last for 100-300 years long, so this is going to continue to be an active, exciting and challenging period for Iceland, but will make for one of the most magical times in history to visit Iceland.
We will be mindful to keep our travelors and the public updated with all information we come by, and simply continue to hope for the best possible outcomes.